- (+) At first sight, the market is an uptrend.
- (-) haDelta is getting weaker.
- If 2019 will print a
**lower**high than the one in 2018, then haDelta will fall under its short average and the 2018 top will be confirmed. And the bull market will end.

- (+) Cup-and-Handle August-present
- $380 is strong resistance

**–**

**Tesla ($TSLA) weekly**

- (!) Very strong resistance below $400 (4th attempt now)
- (+) haDelta is bullish

**–**

**Tesla ($TSLA) monthly**

- (+) Higher highs and higher lows
- (!) Positive above $400.
- haDelta shows a possible top as $TSLA is approaching resistance.

–

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—

**BOX daily**

- (+) Buy-stop triggered.
- (-) At resistance
- (-) Lower lows, lower highs.

**–**

**BOX weekly**

- (+) Positive divergence.

**–**

**BOX monthly**

- (+ -) Signs of a reversal. Just signs…

**–**

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- (-) The weekly (momentum) market breadth doesn’t show the strength to become positive. A failure at price support will start another downtrend segment.

**–**

**S&P 500 monthly**

- (-) The monthly (momentum) market breadth is very weak, barely positive.

–

**S&P 500 daily**

- (- -) Serious negative signal.

–

]]>- (-) Clear downtrend
- (+) A reaction is expected
- (+) Long above 204
- Positive bias only above 210 high

**–**

**Apple ($AAPL) weekly**

- (-) Damaged
- Long, only above 220.25 (buy-stop)

**–**

**Apple ($AAPL) monthly**

- (+) Still bullish
- (!) Sitting near support @187

**–**

Monitoring the MACD signal (subchart #2)

–

]]>- (+) A reaction
- (-)
**MACD is still below**its average, in negative territory - (-) The
**close returned at the historical deviation**from its 10-bar average

–

- (-) Damage is done
- (-)
**Chikou-span is below the close**and has a higher probability to remain so for the next (at least) 10 days - (-)
**Ichimoku cloud is a huge resistance for the next 26 days**(the close *must end above the cloud to change the bearish bias of the market)

–

]]>- (+ -) Consolidation at the top with a negative bias

**–**

**Apple ($AAPL) weekly**

- (-) Technical weakness

**–**

**Apple ($AAPL) monthly**

- (+ – ) Uptrend slowdown.

**–**

**–**

**AMZN/VIX weekly**

- (-) Higher volatility ahead.

**–**

**AMZN/VIX monthly**

- (-) A possible return of higher volatility.

**–**

This short article describes two risk measures that can be easily calculated using historical data and a statistical software (R, Excel):

**VaR (Value-at-Risk):**The lowest amount of the capital (%) one can lose with a certain level of confidence, in a single event during the period.**CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk or Expected Shortfall)**: The average (%) of all losses greater or equal than VaR for the same confidence level.

CVarR is greater than VaR and is considered more relevant than VaR.

Below, we calculate and discuss these values for three distinct periods in the life of BTCUSD and ETHUSD.

–

**Case #1: September 8 – October 10, 2018 (A very quiet period for cryptocurrencies)**

Number of days: 32

VaR95% (BTHUSD) = -1.936% means that every 1.6 days i.e. (1-0.95)*32 days we can lose **at least** 1.936% of the capital.

CVaR95% (BTHUSD) = -3.005% means that on the day we lose at least 1.936% of the capital, we can expect to lose 3.005% of the capital.

Since CVaR is more relevant than VaR, we calibrate the risk (for a 95% confidence level) for **at least** 3.005% capital loss on one single event during this period. The same logic applies to each value in the table below, with focus on CVaR.

**–**

**Case #2: January 1 – October 10, 2018 (Since the start of 2018)**

Number of days: 282

VaR99% (ETHUSD) = -14.933% means that every 2.8 days i.e. (1-0.99)*282 days we can lose **at least** 14.933% of the capital.

CVaR99% (ETHUSD) = -17.26% means that on the day we lose at least 14.933% of the capital, we can expect to lose 17.26% of the capital.

Since CVaR is more relevant than VaR, we calibrate the risk (for a 99% confidence level) for **at least** 17.26% capital loss on one single event during this period. The same logic applies to each value in the table below, with focus on CVaR.

**–**

**Case #3: July 10 – December 16, 2017 (A very bullish period)**

Number of days: 159

VaR99% (BTCUSD) = -9.651% means that every 1.6 days i.e. (1-0.99)*159 days we can lose **at least** 9.651% of the capital.

CVaR99% (BTCUSD) = -13.534% means that on the day we lose at least 9.651% of the capital, we can expect to lose 13.534% of the capital.

Since CVaR is more relevant than VaR, we calibrate the risk (for a 99% confidence level) for **at least** 17.26% capital loss on one single event during this period. The same logic applies to each value in the table below, with focus on CVaR.

**–**

**To remember**

- Based on
**historical**data, we can calculate**expected**levels of losses for confidence intervals of our choice (95%, 99%). Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk or Expected Shortfall) are two measures that can help calibrate the risk. **CVaR is higher than VaR**for the same confidence level, therefore more representative and its use is recommended.**ETHUSD is prone to higher losses**than BTCUSD.- During trends (Cases #2 and #3),
**traders may incur higher losses**than during quiet periods (Case #1) **Focus on losses**instead of gains.- Same logic can be used for currencies, equities, other cryptocurrencies, other financial instruments.
- Calculated VaR and CVaR values are
**not a warranty**against future losses. Far more serious losses may occur due to unexpected events.

(Results were generated from GDAX exchange data using the PerformanceAnalytics R package)

–

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